| > Oceanography > Issues > Archive > Volume 22, Number 3 |
2009, Oceanography 22(3):154–159, http://dx.doi.org/10.5670/oceanog.2009.73
Ocean Initialization for Seasonal Forecasts
Authors | Abstract | Full Article | Citation
Authors
Magdalena A. Balmaseda | European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting, Reading, UK
Oscar J. Alves | Seasonal Prediction and Climate Variability Group, Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Melbourne, Australia
Alberto Arribas | Seasonal Forecasting, Met Office, Exeter, UK
Toshiyuki Awaji | Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan, and Data Research Center for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Japan
David W. Behringer | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Centers for Environmental Prediction, Camp Springs, MD, USA
Nicolas Ferry | Mercator Océan, Ramonville-Saint-Agne, France
Yosuke Fujii | Oceanographic Research Department, Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency, Tsukuba, Japan
Tong Lee | Science Division, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, USA
Michele Rienecker | Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA
Tony Rosati | NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, USA
Detlef Stammer | Institut für Meereskunde, KlimaCampus, Universität Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany
Abstract
Several operational centers routinely issue seasonal forecasts of Earth's climate using coupled ocean-atmosphere models, which require near-real-time knowledge of the state of the global ocean. This paper reviews existing ocean analysis efforts aimed at initializing seasonal forecasts. We show that ocean data assimilation improves the skill of seasonal forecasts in many cases, although its impact can be overshadowed by errors in the coupled models. The current practice, known as "uncoupled" initialization, has the advantage of better knowledge of atmospheric forcing fluxes, but it has the shortcoming of potential initialization shock. In recent years, the idea of obtaining truly "coupled" initialization, where the different components of the coupled system are well balanced, has stimulated several research activities that will be reviewed in light of their application to seasonal forecasts.
Full Article
Citation
Balmaseda, M.A., O.J. Alves, A. Arribas, T. Awaji, D.W. Behringer, N. Ferry, Y. Fujii, T. Lee, M. Rienecker, T. Rosati, and D. Stammer. 2009. Ocean initialization for seasonal forecasts. Oceanography 22(3):154–159, http://dx.doi.org/10.5670/oceanog.2009.73.