Despite concerns about rapid changes in Arctic Ocean physical forcing and ecosystem function, quantitative knowledge and time series are scarce. The number of reliable physical-biological coupled models and models based on remote sensing is small. To improve our comprehension of carbon flux in the most prominent Arctic Ocean feature, the seasonal ice zone, a possible first step is to evaluate how biogeochemical cycling might develop in the future by examining conceptual models that address climate warming and seasonality in ecosystem development. Here we present three conceptual models of biogeochemical cycling and climate warming in the seasonal ice zone of the Arctic Ocean. They are designed to enhance, in a conceptual and semiquantitative manner, understanding of the possible temporal sequence of future primary production development, its spatial variation, and food availability in the most productive part of the future Arctic Ocean, including pelagic-benthic coupling. We speculate that the largest changes will take place in (a) the northern portions of today’s seasonal ice zone, which will expand to cover the entire Arctic Ocean, and (b) the southern portions, which will be exposed to more thermal stratification. The former change increases and the latter change decreases productivity and supply to the bottom. Lack of nutrient availability means that new production in the central Arctic Ocean will remain low. Blooms of ice and plankton algae may start earlier, depending on snow cover, providing more continuity in food supply for grazers in the upper water column. Weakening of today’s highly episodic primary production in the seasonal ice zone will result in lower average food concentrations for pelagic heterotrophs. We suggest that more of the available energy will be recycled in the pelagic zone, and that vertical export of biogenic matter will be less variable and of reduced quality.

Wassmann, P., and M. Reigstad. 2011. Future Arctic Ocean seasonal ice zones and implications for pelagic-benthic coupling. Oceanography 24(3):220–231, https://doi.org/10.5670/oceanog.2011.74.

Apollonio, S., and P. Matrai. 2011. Marine primary production in the Canadian Arctic. 1956. Polar Biology 34:767–774, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00300-010-0928-3.

Bellerby, R.G.J., A. Olsen, T. Furevik, and L.A. Anderson. 2005. Response of the surface ocean CO2 system in the Nordic Seas and North Atlantic to climate change. Pp. 189–198 in Climate Variability in the Nordic Seas. H. Drange, T.M. Dokken, T. Furevik, R. Gerdes, and W. Berger, eds, Geophysical Monograph Series, American Geophysical Union, Washington, DC.

Buesseler, K.O., C.H. Lamborg, P.W. Boyd, P.J. Lam, T.W. Trull, R.R. Bidigare, J.K.B. Bishop, K.L. Casciotti, F. Dehairs, M. Elskens, and others. 2007. Revisiting carbon flux through the ocean’s twilight zone. Science 316:567–570, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1137959.

Carmack, E. 2007. The alpha/beta ocean distinction: A perspective on freshwater fluxes, convection, nutrients and productivity in high-latitude seas. Deep-Sea Research Part II 54:2,578–2,598, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dsr2.2007.08.018.

Carmack, E., and P. Wassmann. 2006. Food webs and physical-biological coupling on pan-Arctic shelves: Comprehensive perspectives, unifying concepts and future research. Progress in Oceanography 71:446–477, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2006.10.004.

Carroll, M.L., and J. Carroll. 2003. The Arctic Seas. Pp. 127–156 in Biogeochemistry of Marine Systems. K. Black and G. Shimmield, eds, Blackwell Publishing, Oxford.

Comiso, J.C. 2003. Warming trends in the Arctic from clear sky satellite observations. Journal of Climate 16:3,498–3,510, https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<3498:WTITAF>2.0.CO;2.

Comiso, J.C., C.L. Parkinson, R. Gersten, and L. Stock. 2008. Accelerated decline in the Arctic sea ice cover. Geophysical Research Letters 35, L01703, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL031972.

Eppley, R.W., and B.J. Peterson. 1979. Particulate organic matter flux and planktonic new production in the deep ocean. Nature 282:677–680, https://doi.org/10.1038/282677a0.

Forest, A., M. Sampei, R. Makabe, H. Sasaki, H. Hattori, M. Fukuchi, D. Barber, Y. Gratton, P. Wassmann, and L. Fortier. 2008. Annual cycle of particulate organic carbon export in the Franklin Bay (Canadian Arctic): Environmental control and food web implications. Journal of Geophysical Research 113, C03S05, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JC004262.

Gosselin, M., M. Levasseur, P.A. Wheeler, R.A. Horner, and B.C. Booth. 1997. New measurements of phytoplankton and ice algal production in the Arctic Ocean. Deep-Sea Research Part II 44:1,623–1,644, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0967-0645(97)00054-4.

Hunt, G.L., and P.J. Stabeno. 2002. Climate change and the control of energy flow in the southeastern Bering Sea. Progress in Oceanography 55:5–22, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0079-6611(02)00067-8.

Kahru, M., W. Brotas, M. Manzano-Sarabia, and B.G. Mitchel. 2011. Are phytoplankton blooms occurring earlier in the Arctic? Global Change Biology 17:1,733–1,739, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2010.02312.x.

Kosobokova, K.N., R.R. Hopcroft, and H.-J. Hirche. 2011. Patterns of zooplankton diversity through the depth of the Arctic’s central basins. Marine Biodiversity 41:29–50, https://doi.org/10.1007/s12526-010-0057-9.

Kritzberg, E.S., C.M. Duarte, and P. Wassmann. 2010. Changes in Arctic marine bacterial carbon metabolism in response to increasing temperature. Polar Biology (Special Issue: Impacts of Climate Warming on Polar Marine and Freshwater Ecosystems) 33:1,673–1,682, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00300-010-0799-7.

Kwok, R., and D.A. Rothrock. 2009. Decline in Arctic sea ice thickness from submarine and ICESat records: 1958–2008. Geophysical Research Letters 36, L15501, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL039035.

Legendre, L., S.F. Ackley, G.S. Dieckmann, B. Gulliksen, R. Horner, T. Hoshiai, A. Melnikov, W.S. Reeburg, W.S. Spindler, and C.W. Sullivan. 1992. Ecology of sea ice biota. 2. Global significance. Polar Biology 12:429–444, https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00243114.

Leu, E., J.E. Søreide, D.O. Hessen, S. Falk-Petersen, and J. Berge. 2011. Consequences of changing sea ice cover for primary and secondary producers in the European Arctic shelf seas: Timing, quantity, and quality. Progress in Oceanography 90:18–32, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2011.02.004.

Li, W.K.W., F.A. McLaughlin, C. Lovejoy, and E.C. Carmack. 2009. Smallest algae thrive as the Arctic Ocean freshens. Science 326:539, https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1179798.

McPhee, M.G., A. Proshutinsky, L.H. Morison, M. Steele, and M.B. Alkire. 2009. Rapid change in freshwater content of the Arctic Ocean. Geophysical Research Letters 36, L10602, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL037525.

Olli, K., P. Wassmann, M. Reigstad, T.N. Ratkova, E. Arashkevich, A. Pasternak, P. Matrai, and J. Knulst. 2007. Suspended concentration and vertical flux of organic particles in the upper 200 m during a 3 week ice drift at 88°N. Progress in Oceanography 72:84–113, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2006.08.002.

Olli, K., C. Wexels Riser, P. Wassmann, T. Ratkova, E. Arashkevich, and A. Pasternak. 2002. Seasonal variation in vertical export of biogenic matter in the marginal ice zone and the central Barents Sea. Journal of Marine Research 38:189–204, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0924-7963(02)00177-X.

Pabi, S., G.L. Van Dijken, and K. Arrigo. 2008. Primary production in the Arctic Ocean, 1998–2006. Journal of Geophysical Research 113, C08005, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JC004578.

Perrette, M., A. Yool, G.D. Quartly, and E.E. Popova. 2011. Near-ubiquity of ice-edge blooms in the Arctic. Biogeosciences 8:515–524, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-8-515-2011.

Piepenburg, D., P. Archambault, W.G. Ambrose, A.L. Blanchard, B.A. Bluhm, M.L. Carroll, K.E. Conlan, M. Cusson, H.M. Feder, J.M. Grebmeier, and others. 2011. Towards a pan-Arctic inventory of the species diversity of the macro- and megabenthic fauna of the Arctic shelf seas. Marine Biodiversity 41:51–70, https://doi.org/10.1007/s12526-010-0059-7.

Polyakov, I.V., L.A. Timokov, V.A. Alexeev, S. Bacon, I.A. Dimitrenko, L. Fortier, I.E. Frolov, J.-C. Gascard, E. Hansen, V.V. Ivanov, and others. 2010. Arctic Ocean warming contributes to reduced Polar ice cap. Journal of Physical Oceanography 40:2,743–2,756, https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JPO4339.1.

Popova, E.E., A. Yool, A.C. Coward, Y.K. Aksenov, S.G. Alderson, B.A. de Cuevas, and T.R. Anderson. 2010. Control of primary production in the Arctic by nutrients and light: Insights from a high resolution ocean general circulation model. Biogeosciences 7:3,569–3,591, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-7-3569-2010.

Poulin, M., N. Daugbjerg, R. Gradinger, L. Ilyash, T. Ratkova, and C. von Quillfeldt. 2011. The pan-Arctic biodiversity of marine pelagic and sea-ice unicellular eukaryotes: A first-attempt assessment. Marine Biodiversity 41:13–28, https://doi.org/10.1007/s12526-010-0058-8.

Reigstad, M., C. Wexels Riser, S. Øygarden, P. Wassmann, and F. Rey. 2002. Variation in hydrography, nutrients and suspended biomass in the marginal ice zone and the central Barents Sea. Journal of Marine Systems 38:9–29, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0924-7963(02)00167-7.

Reigstad, M., C. Wexels Riser, P. Wassmann, and T. Ratkova. 2008. Vertical export of particulate organic carbon: Attenuation, composition and loss rates in the northern Barents Sea. Deep-Sea Research Part II 55:2,308–2,319, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.dsr2.2008.05.007.

Rokkan Iversen, K., and L. Seuthe. 2010. Seasonal microbial processes in a high-latitude fjord (Kongsfjorden, Svalbard). I. Heterotrophic bacteria, picoplankton and nanoflagellates. Polar Biology 34:731–749, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00300-010-0929-2.

Sakshaug, E. 2004. Primary and secondary production in the Arctic Seas. Pp. 57–81 in The Organic Carbon Cycle in the Arctic Ocean. R. Stein and R.W. Macdonald, eds, Springer-Verlag, Berlin, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-18912-8_3.

Slagstad, D., I.H. Ellingsen, and P. Wassmann. 2011. Evaluating primary and secondary production in an Arctic Ocean void of summer sea ice: An experimental simulation approach. Progress in Oceanography 90:117–131, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2011.02.009.

Søreide, J.E., H. Hop, M.L. Carroll, S. Falk-Petersen, and E.N. Hegseth. 2006. Seasonal food web structures and sympagic-pelagic coupling in the European Arctic revealed by stable isotopes and a two-source food web model. Progress in Oceanography 71:59–87, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2006.06.001.

Søreide, J.E., E. Leu, J. Berge, M. Graeve, and S. Falk-Petersen. 2010. Timing of blooms, algal food quality and Calanus glacialis reproduction and growth in a changing Arctic. Global Change Biology 16:2,913–3,169, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2010.02175.x.

Stroeve, J., M.M. Holland, W. Meier, T. Scambos, and M. Serreze. 2007. Arctic sea ice decline: Faster than forecast. Geophysical Research Letters 34, L09501, https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL029703.

Sundfjord, A., I. Fer, Y. Kasajima, and H. Svendsen. 2007. Observations of turbulent mixing and hydrography in the marginal ice zone of the Barents Sea. Journal of Geophysical Research 112, C05008, https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JC003524.

Tremblay, J.E., and J. Gagnon. 2009. The effects of irradiance and nutrient supply on the productivity of Arctic waters: A perspective on climate change. Pp. 73–92 in Influence of Climate Change on the Changing Arctic and Subarctic Conditions. C.J. Nihoul and A.G. Kostianoy, eds, Springer Science, Berlin, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4020-9460-6_7.

Tremblay, J.-E., H. Hattori, C. Michel, M. Ringuette, Z.P. Mei, C. Lovejoy, L. Fortier, K.A. Hobson, D. Amiel, and K. Cochran. 2006. Trophic structure and pathways of biogenic carbon flow in the eastern North Water Polynya. Progress in Oceanography 71:402–425, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2006.10.006.

Vaquer-Sunyer, R., C.M. Duarte, P. Wassmann, R. Santiago, and M. Reigstad. 2010. Experimental evaluation of planktonic respiration response to warming in the European Arctic Sector. Polar Biology 33:1,661–1,671, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00300-010-0788-x.

von Eye, M., A. von Eye, and J. Rodrigues. 2009. Global Warming and Changes in Sea Ice in the Greenland Sea: 1979–2007. R. Graf, ed., InterStat, 27 pp. Available online at http://interstat.statjournals.net/YEAR/2009/abstracts/0905003.php (accessed June 13, 2011).

Wassmann, P. 1998. Retention versus export food chains: Processes controlling sinking loss from marine pelagic systems. Hydrobiologia 363:29–57, https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1003113403096.

Wassmann, P. 2011. Arctic marine ecosystems in an era of rapid climate change. Progress in Oceanography 90:1–17, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2011.02.002.

Wassmann, P., C.M. Duarte, S. Agusti, and M. Sejr. 2011. Footprints of climate change in the Arctic marine ecosystem. Biological Global Change 17:1,235–1,429, https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2486.2010.02311.x.

Wassmann, P., K. Olli, C. Wexels Riser, and C. Svensen. 2003. Ecosystem function, biodiversity and vertical flux regulation in the twilight zone. Pp. 279–287 in Marine Science Frontiers for Europe. G. Wefer, F. Lamy, and F. Mantoura, eds, Springer Verlag.

Wassmann, P., D. Slagstad, and I. Ellingsen. 2010. Primary production and climatic variability in the European sector of the Arctic Ocean prior to 2007: Preliminary results. Polar Biology 33:1,641–1,650, https://doi.org/10.1007/s00300-010-0839-3.

Yamamoto-Kawai, M., F.A. McLaughlin, E.C. Carmack, S. Nishino, K. Shimada, and N. Kurita. 2009. Surface freshening of the Canada Basin, 2003–2007: River runoff versus sea ice meltwater. Journal of Geophysical Research 114, C00A05, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008JC005000.

Zhang, I., Y.H. Spitz, M. Steele, C. Ashjian, R. Campbell, L. Berline, and P. Matrai. 2010. Modeling the impact of declining sea ice on the Arctic marine planktonic ecosystem. Journal of Geophysical Research 115, C10015, https://doi.org/10.1029/2009JC005387

This is an open access article made available under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution, and reproduction in any medium or format as long as users cite the materials appropriately, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate the changes that were made to the original content. Images, animations, videos, or other third-party material used in articles are included in the Creative Commons license unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If the material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license, users will need to obtain permission directly from the license holder to reproduce the material.